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Dec 24 2008

Week 17: Around the NFL and Fantasy Football

Well, its the last week of the 2008 NFL season.  With great anticipation, this final week holds a lot of opportunity for several NFL teams as excitement builds for the playoffs.  With this week though a taste of “bittersweetness” starts to set in. . .because while the playoffs will surely prove eventful and watch-worthy, it also means that the season is nearly over. . .but no need to let the tears flow yet, let’s just take it one week at a time.

Key Games to Watch for Playoff Purposes:

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets: In one of three unclinched divisions this game is tremendously pivotal for both teams.  A Dolphins loss (and New England Patriots win) gives the division to the Pats. If both the Dolphins and Patriots lose, the Jets could take it because though all three teams would have the same record, the Jets would have the best divisional record.  This one will be interesting for sure (and if you didn’t see, the Dolphins, though they won, struggled in the Kansas City cold last week - New York won’t be much nicer).

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers: Just a few weeks ago everyone thought the Broncos had the division secure.  They weren’t exactly blowing away the competition, but they were ligit (much like the Cardinals).  But after losing 2 straight and the creeping Chargers reeling off 3 victories, the division is up for grabs.  Whoever wins this game clinches the title. . .whoever doesn’t is probably going home empty handed with the wild card race so close in the AFC East and North.  Philip Rivers has been hot so Denver’s struggling defense will need to hold it together to keep it close.

New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings: The Giants are in the clear having clinched home field advantage for the playoffs so they may end up putting in some second stringers and resting their big dogs.  Even so, the Giants are deep and are far from a pushover. And even if big bull Brandon Jacobs is benched for NYG, the Giants still have two formidable backs in Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw so the Vikes can’t go to sleep.  Meanwhile, can Tarvaris Jackson lead the passing charge to help compliment All-Day Adrian Peterson?  This will prove to be a major test as a Vikings win will help lock up the division.

Top 5 Fantasy Ranks for QB, RB, and WR (just in case your league does Week 17):

QB:

1. Philip Rivers: He’s been ridiculously good this year, and he scorched a very respectable Tampa D last week for 4 TDs.  Denver’s secondary is one of the worst this year, though having Champ Bailey back may help some.  Still, it seems the hot Chargers should keep their streak alive, and it will be done with Rivers’ arm.

2. Aaron Rodgers: Its the Detroit Lions this week, which is like an oasis in the desert given a tough loss last week.  Green Bay is out of the playoff picture but will play for pride and also make sure they don’t get beat by the 0-15 Lions.  Ryan Grant has been a roller coaster, and Rodgers has scored via air or ground in every week but one so some cush numbers will be had.

3. Jay Cutler: He’s still unreliable sometimes but last week when he couldn’t score through the air, he rushed for 2 TDs. He’ll get you points weekly, and the Chargers D is shaky. This game could prove to be a shoot out, and Cutler has the cannon to do it.

4. Kurt Warner: He’s still MVP worthy even with the Cardinals struggling the last few so why so low? With the Cards having clinched the division its hard telling if Warner will play the whole game as well as wide receivers Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald.  If they all do, Warner is more than worthy of the #4 spot (maybe #2 or even #1).  Only game day will tell but its hard not to give him a shot this week against the leagues worst passing D.

5.  Matt Ryan: Can’t deny the rookie here. There may be a few other QBs worth considering for sure but Ryan has been solid all year.  St. Louis has nothing to boast in the passing defense, and Michael Turner get the run game going, which should help with the deep ball.  It should be a field trip for the Falcons, and Ryan will be the tour guide.

Honorable Mentions: Ben Roethlisberger, Brett Favre, Matt Cassel, Tyler Thigpen

RB:

1.  DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart: William has had a monster season having two 4-TD games this year and having scored in at least one TD in 10 of the last 11 games.  He faces a pourous New Orleans Saints D, but even so, it doesn’t matter as DeAngelo has been killing it no matter who he faces (he put over 100 yds and 4 TDs last week against a stiff Giants D). Stewart will clean up the rest.

2. Michael Turner: The “Burner” will scorch the Rams this week.  They simply cannot stop the run, and Turner has been running on everyone the last several weeks.  He’s a rumbling thunder that will probably near or eclipse 100 yds and at least 1 score.

3. Clinton Portis: If he’s healthy and they let him play, he gets the 49ers. And while the 49ers run D has been fairly respectable this year, the Skins are angry (about a whole lot of things). Expect Portis to end this year on a high note.

4.  LenDale White/Chris Johnson: Its expected LenDale White and Johnson will probably sit at some point this game, even though they face division rival Indianapolis. But the Titans won’t just give the Colts this game, and Indy’s run D has been deplorable. If these guys stay in even half the game, it might be enough for them to each score.

5. Matt Forte: Here’s another rookie getting the job done, and he faces a wimpy Texans run D.  The Bears have been hot, rattling off three straight, and they’ll be coming out strong in hopes to win the division. Forte can run and catch, and he almost always tops 100 total yards.  Similar totals should be expected and 1-2 scores are not out of reach.

Honorable mentions: Steven Jackson, Willie Parker, Ryan Grant, Maurice Morris, Tashard Choice, Brian Westbrook

WR:

1. Steve Smith: Sure, the Panthers can run all day, and they probably will. But despite laying an egg in New York last week, Smith has been incredibly hot.  The Saints have been fairly stiff against the run the last few weeks, and that just might prove enough for a downfield bomb to Smith.

2. Anquan Boldin/Larry Fitzgerald: They get the #2 slot only because we don’t know how much they or Warner will play, but if they play at all against the Seahawks, one, if not both, have the potential to score.  Even with a shortened play time, they are both capable of scoring in one quarter alone.

3. Terrell Owens: Which T.O. will show up? Who knows. . .but TO has a history of scorching his old teams.  The Cowboys are desperately needing a win, and with all the recent Cowboys drama and playing in front of his ol’ Philly team, the Eagles better keep an eye on #81.  He’s not a lock by any means, but the upside is there given the scenario. Besides, its TO your taking a chance on, so its not a complete gamble at all.

4. Vincent Jackson: Not your expected #4 pick? Don’t blame you, but he’s had over 100 yards in the last 3 games and a score in each contest.  Plus, he gets a fabulous matchup against the Broncos D, and Chambers will probably get Bailey, which leaves Jackson to roam downfield and use his tall frame.  Add all this with a smoking Philip Rivers, and we’re looking at four straight with a TD.

5. Greg Jennings: He gets Detroit. . .and we could stop there. But the Packers run has been up and down all year. And while it is Detroit so Ryan Grant could actually show up, Rodgers will look to his favorite long-bomb target in Jennings. He should do just fine in this matchup.

Honorable mentions: Hines Ward, Roddy White, Randy Moss, Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall

There you go gang. If you are playing this week, best of luck to ya!

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Dec 17 2008

NFL Week 16: Fantasy Football Championships

Congratulations!

You’ve made it this far in your fantasy football league. . .but anyone who has played the game any length, even rookies, will know that just like in real football it only matters if you win the whole thing.

So week 16, I’ll give you my top 5 locks at quarterback, running back and wide receiver - In other words, these are the guys that are most likely to lock up that trophy for you this week (Ranks exclude tight end, defenses, and kickers - sorry gang, kickers are as inconsistent to predict as it is to which Hollywood starling will enter rehab next).

Here you go then. . .love ‘em, hate ‘em, or just read ‘em - my Week 16 Fantasy Football Top 5 Position Ranks:

QB: Drew Brees, the smoking gun (ASSOCIATED PRESS PHOTO BY GENE J. PUSKAR)

1.  Drew Brees - They might run all day, but how can you pass up on the league pass leader against this defense?

2.  Jay Cutler - He’s been erratic, but the Bills aren’t scary and Cutler can go off any week.

3. Peyton Manning - Everyone’s forgetting the first half of his season and rightfully so.  Expect Manning to keep rolling.

4. Matt Cassel - I’ve doubted all season long, but he scorched Oakland and  the Cardinals secondary is reeling. Plus, this could easily be a shoot-out.

5. Aaron Rodgers - He’s been incredibly consistent all year, and the Bears secondary has been a sieve.  He puts up his usual 250 and 2 scores.

Honorable mentions: Kurt Warner, Brett Favre, Matt Schaub and Philip Rivers

RB:

Jones-Drew should scorch Indy (image pulled from: http://www.rotorob.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/11/Maurice_Jones-Drew.jpg on 12/18/08) 1. Maurice Jones-Drew - He burns Indy every time, he’s getting feature carries, and Bob Sanders might not play - ’nuff said.

2. Adrian Peterson - He’s quietly putting up another great year, and Atlanta has had trouble stopping the run all year.

3. Pierre Thomas - He’s dominated the last few weeks and now Bush is out too.  The Detroit defense won’t hurt either.

4. Matt Forte - All the talk about Matt Ryan for ROY is justified but Forte has been a beast all year long. He faces a sluggish Packers run D, and he can catch out of the backfield.

5. Brandon Jacobs - Carolina isn’t necessarily a push-over and he is dinged up, but if he can go full speed in this crucial game , he’s going to score.

Honorable mentions: Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, Ronnie Brown, Marshawn Lynch, Steve Slaton

WR:

Calvin Johnson is using his skills to overcome a Detroit QB deficit (image pulled from: http://www.squibkick.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/calvin-johnson-end-around.jpg on 12/18/08)

1. Calvin Johnson - Gutsy call - sure.  But it hasn’t mattered whose throwing the ball in D-town, he’s scoring regularly, the Saints don’t have an answer for him, and the Lions will have to throw to keep in the game.

2. Brandon Marshall - Again, it all depends on Cutler, but if the Denver gives Cut time to throw, Marshall will have a hey-day.

3. Randy Moss - Its hard to trust him but Cassel will need him in this game and Arizona will have a hard time containing him.

4. Marques Colston/Lance Moore - One of these two will score, if not both. Its just hard to tell which one but Brees will put up a few scores, and these guys can play.

5. Antonio Bryant - This guy has resurrected his career (for this year anyway), and he’s averaged nearly 125 yds the past three games, including 4 scores during that time.  San Diego will be another victim.

Honorable mentions: Reggie Wayne, Dwayne Bowe, Anquan Boldin/Larry Fitzgerald, Bernard Berrian, Roddy White

There you go folks - start these players with confidence! Good luck to you this week!

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